Analysis: 2022 US Senate Election, Nevada: Catherine Cortez Masto (D) vs Adam Laxalt (R)

Election’s Introduction & Key Significance:

The 2022 Nevada US Senate race captured national attention, and its importance extended the state's borders. At the center of this pivotal election was incumbent Senator Catherine Cortez Masto, a 59-year-old Democrat who grew up in Clark County, Nevada. As the first Latina ever elected to the US Senate in 2016, Cortez Masto’s reelection bid stood as a critical test of enduring power and symbolic representation in an increasingly diverse America. The significance of the state’s traditional battleground status continued, as did its history of close elections. This election was crucial in securing a democratic hold of the Senate, ensuring that Democrats retained their majority and gained a net seat. National and state-specific elements, including national political climate, key policy issues, voter mobilization, etc, shaped the 2022 Nevada Senate race. Senator Catherine Cortez Masto’s victory resulted from effective campaign strategies that resonated with Nevada's diverse electorate. Cortez Masto navigated critical local and national issues under a politically divided nation, seeking direction amid significant economic and social challenges.

Nevada Background & Demographics:

Historically a battleground state in presidential elections, with a history of close races, eyes turn towards Nevada– important in deciding national outcomes and political trends. 

Demographic diversity in Nevada holds significant Hispanic, African-American, and Asian community populations (U.S. Census), especially in urban areas like Las Vegas and Reno, (Clark County and Washoe, respectively). These counties also introduce a notable divide between urban democratic leans versus the rest of the state’s rural republican strongholds. 

Nevada is typically seen as a “women-friendly” state, as it is progressive in gender representation for elected officials. NV was the first state in U.S. History to have a female-majority state legislature, which has made the state instrumental in advancing traditional “women’s issues” like reproductive rights, healthcare access, equal pay, parental leave, etc. This being said Catherine Cortez Masto’s presence in the Senate serves as an inspiration and model for women and Latino community members, encouraging greater political participation and ambition within these minority groups (Rodriguez).

As the entertainment capital of the world, the state relies heavily on tourism and entertainment, which are historically critical in conversations of economic development, job creation, and workers' rights. NV is also heavily focused on environmental concerns, giving attention to water rights and renewable energy, considering the geographic location’s considerable experience with drought. Land management has also led to extended conversations on rights for indigenous native populations and the insurance of collaborative management approaches from conservation to resource extraction. 

Political Environment up to 2022 U.S. Senate Elections: 

National Issues & Their Effect on Nevada: 

Midterm elections often serve as a gauge of the sitting president's popularity and the public's satisfaction with the current administration's direction (Sides). As of November 2022, based on his performance, Biden’s popularity and approval remained in the low 40% (Yokely). 

Economic concerns were represented through exponentially high inflation rates with contention in Nevada due to the rising cost of living. Post-COVID-19, the state struggled as the local economy was hit hard by the pandemic, especially in areas like Las Vegas, where dependence lies heavily on tourism and hospitality. High inflation and job security were significant concerns in the state during this election (Klein and Smith).

Public health measures following the COVID-19 pandemic were also still prevalent as the health crisis affected the core of tourism and entertainment. Vaccine mandates, reopening strategies, etc., were still at the forefront of voters' minds both nationally and within the state.

Immigration policy regarding border security, DACA (Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals), and overall immigration reform made significant conversations in states across the nation, specifically those with large immigrant populations and/or those that border Mexico. Nevada’s significant Hispanic population meant that immigration policies were a critical concern for many voters as there were direct implications for a substantial portion of the electorate. This conversation was especially important after Biden’s administration was scrutinized for handling border security and immigration reform (Beitsch and Bernal).

 Political polarization, partisan divides, and the ever-persisting perception gap amplify party separation between candidates and mobilize voters on both ends of the political spectrum. With Nevada's growing female legislature, we have seen elected officials working across the aisle to pass legislation. "I know we have over 90% bipartisanship on the bills we have passed so far," Democratic Assemblywoman Selena Torres said. This bipartisan nature is more important than ever in creating thriving teams to enact successful legislation.

Candidate Characteristics:

Senator Cortez Masto’s Political Background, Characteristics, and Key Policies. 

Catherine Cortez Masto started her political career after graduating from law school; she moved to Washington, D.C., and worked as an assistant United States attorney. Following that, she moved back to Nevada and became the Assistant County Manager for Clark County until 2006, then began campaigning to become the next Nevada Attorney General. She served two terms as Attorney General of Nevada (reelected in 2010). Then, in November of 2016, Cortez Masto made history by becoming the first woman from Nevada and the first Latina ever elected to the United States Senate.  

In her time in office as attorney general, she gained national attention for heading large-scale prosecutions of illegal drug and sex traffickers, victim rights cases, etc. The issues she prioritized in this position were elder abuse, sex trafficking, the methamphetamine epidemic, drug distribution, and domestic violence. 

Cortez Masto headed the statewide Methamphetamine Working Group to fight the use, manufacturing, and distribution of meth in Nevada. She believed that fighting the epidemic required a combined approach of prevention, treatment, legislation, and law enforcement. Cortez Masto helped pass new laws to eradicate meth manufacturing and restricted the sale of materials that were used to make the drug. Her efforts led to a significant decrease in the use and distribution of meth in Nevada. 

For her most recent Senate Election in 2022 against Laxalt, Cortez Masto campaigned on platforms that included raising the minimum wage, protecting Medicare and Social Security, and passing comprehensive immigration reform. 

Adam Laxalt’s Political Background, Characteristics, and Key Policies.

Adam Laxalt, Republican, is a former Attorney General of Nevada who succeeded Cortez Masto and served from 2015 to 2019. He was also a nominee for NV Governor in 2018. He comes from a line of politicians, the son of former U.S. Senator Pete Domenici and the grandson of former U.S. Senator and Nevada Governor Paul Laxalt​. 

This candidate holds a long-standing anti-abortion, pro-life stance, confirmed by his welcoming of the Supreme Court's overturn of Roe v. Wade (adamlaxalt.com/issues). Laxalt supported completing the border wall between Mexico and Nevada and backed technological solutions to strengthen border security. He endorsed the Trump administration's "Remain in Mexico" policy.

Laxalt formerly stood as the Trump campaign’s Nevada co-chair and challenged the legitimacy of the 2020 election results. He raised concerns about election integrity and supported measures like voter ID laws and opposition to universal vote-by-mail and ballot drop boxes (Caputo). 

Endorsed by the NRA and Gunowners of America, Laxalt labels himself as a pro-gun candidate. He opposed Biden’s student debt forgiveness plan and criticized the inclusion of gender and social issues in public school education. Laxalt was critical of what he perceived as the indoctrination of children in schools, particularly regarding critical race theory.

Key Issues and Voter Concerns in the 2022 U.S. Senate Election of Nevada:

Both candidates, Laxalt and Cortez Masto, spoke on similar vital issues and voter concerns, though they stood on opposite ends of the political spectrum. Both candidates spoke on the future of the Affordable Care Act and reproductive rights as voter concerns heightened in the wake of the Supreme Court’s decision on Roe v. Wade. Cortez Masto said she would defend women's reproductive rights. "We must do everything in our power to protect women seeking reproductive health care. That means safeguarding women's data privacy, protecting access to birth control, and electing pro-choice leaders who will pass federal abortion protections," Cortez Masto said. This was while Laxalt worked on progressing his pro-life campaigns. “As most…voters know, there is a major contrast between my views on abortion and those of my opponent, Senator Catherine Cortez Masto.” Said Laxalt. A recent survey by the Nevada Independent and OH Predictive Insights found that 90 percent of voters thought that abortion should be legal in some or all circumstances. In comparison, only 10 percent thought it should be made illegal. This simple fact and voter morale mobilized voters towards one candidate or the other.

Catherine Cortez Masto also highlighted her vote for the Inflation Reduction Act of 2021 (IRA), which she said would reduce healthcare costs for Nevadans. Laxalt spoke somewhat about inflation issues, saying he would fight to stop the record inflation, but he was not specific about his actions and did not highlight this as a critical issue within his campaign. 

On immigration, Laxalt's campaign website said, "We have a crisis at our southern border that has put communities across Nevada in danger. As a Senator, [I] will work to finish the wall, implement other technological solutions, and close the porous southern border." In terms of voter and party resonation with this issue, data from Somos Votantes and Somos PAC in Nevada indicated that Laxalt’s “anti-DACA and overall anti-immigrant stance is a disqualifying factor for the majority of Nevada voters, specifically independents, undecideds, and Latino voters,” said Melissa Morales, head of Somos PAC. As for Catherine Cortez Masto, her campaign focused on “[ensuring] we have an immigration system that treats everyone with dignity while also strengthening border security” (Cortez Masto)

Catherine Cortez Masto referenced investments in solar energy and grappling with issues like water rights and land management. She said investing in renewable energy will grow Nevada's economy. Masto highlighted water law on her campaign website, saying she "secured $450 million for large-scale water recycling, funding a local project that will produce enough water to serve more than 500,000 households in the region." (Cortez Masto) Adam Laxalt did not speak on renewable energy, water rights, or land management- none of these points were key in his campaign and not mentioned on his website.

Voter Turnout and Mobilization

Both parties made some efforts to mobilize their voter bases, such as using grassroots campaigning, door-to-door canvassing, phone banks, community events, etc. Candidates also made use of radio, television, and online advertising using traditional campaign messages to share policy positions. Catherine Cortez Masto also focused her attention on targeted ads, digital posts, and social media campaigns- this means of spreading information was aimed specifically at younger voter demographics. The democratic party and its lead candidate also made extensive efforts to register voters through voter registration drives, mail-in early (Cohn) absentee voting, etc.

Election Results:
Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto won the election and her seat by a very narrow margin, approximately 8000 votes, or 0.8 percentage points. This win hands U.S. Senate control to Democrats for at least two more years.

Redistricting: 

Following the 2020 United States Census, Nevada was apportioned four congressional districts, which were unchanged from their number after the 2010 census. “Although Nevada’s rural counties are home to about 12% of the state’s population, these counties consistently provide Republican candidates with a large and reliable reservoir of votes” (Damore). Regarding geographic distribution and apportionment, party lines stayed generally similar to years past. They were continuing with historically urban democratic and rural republican strongholds.

Alternative Scenarios

Different economic conditions:

Leading up to the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Nevada, a more robust economy would have amplified and improved perceptions and support of incumbent Cortez Masto’s win. Given the concept of a  midterm slump, when the sitting president’s ratings are low, a portion of an individual state’s electorate historically and is futuristically predicted to vote against the party in the White House as a means of balancing the partisanship present. This may explain the surge in republican votes. Had inflation rates been lower, Biden’s approval ratings would likely have been slightly higher, and more individuals may have voted blue, furthering Cortez Masto’s win. 

Suppose Laxalt had taken a more moderate stance on abortion, aligning more closely with Nevada's generally pro-choice electorate. In that case, his position might have appealed to moderate and independent voters who were concerned about the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade. This may have amplified voters on the Republican side of the aisle, possibly pushing Laxalt to a win.

If Laxalt had focused more on specific local issues, such as water rights and land management, and presented effective solutions, he would likely have resonated with more Nevadans who felt his focus on national issues overshadowed the importance of state-specific challenges.  An amplification of conversation around environmental concerns could have potentially gained Laxalt additional support from undecided voters.

If the Republican Party had implemented a more intense voter mobilization strategy, such as absentee and mail-in ballots, voter registration drives, etc. Enhanced mobilization efforts, primarily focused on their strongholds of rural areas, could have increased turnout among conservative voters, possibly narrowing the margin or flipping the election’s result in favor of Laxalt.

Conclusion

Senator Cortez Masto's victory as the first Latina in the US Senate reflected her appeal across various demographic groups and the broader national trend towards embracing diverse representation in politics. Her success is attributed to a nuanced understanding of local concerns, such as economic recovery post-COVID-19, environmental issues, and national debates, including healthcare and immigration.

Adam Laxalt's campaign, while resonating with specific voter segments, ultimately fell short in a state characterized by its growing diversity and progressive leanings on key issues like reproductive rights and immigration reform.

The election also highlighted the crucial role of voter mobilization and turnout. The strategies deployed by both parties, especially in the context of a closely contested race, underscored the importance of grassroots engagement and the effective use of digital media in reaching a wide range of voters.

Looking ahead, the 2022 Nevada Senate race offers valuable insights for future political contests, both within the state and nationally. It suggests a continuing trend towards more diverse representation and a need for political strategies that effectively address the concerns of a changing electorate. This election reinforces Nevada's status as a bellwether state, reflective of broader national political currents. Nationally, the lessons from Nevada's election are clear: demographic changes are reshaping the political landscape, and adaptability to these changes is crucial for electoral success.

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